Political Parties, INEC and possible challenges of 2023 election

Twenty three years into the present dispensation, Nigeria’s democracy has witnessed several challenges though it has continued to weather these threats. Abuja Bureau Chief OBIORA IFOH takes a look at how these challenges can impact on the 2023 general elections. 

 

 

Against all expectations, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC buckled under pressure from 18 political parties to shift the deadline for the party primaries and agreed to shift the earlier date which was 3rd June to 9th June 2021.

 

The commission had on Saturday, 26th February 2022 rolled out its contigent plans for the 2023 general elections and had vowed that it will follow the time table strictly but what happened on Friday to so many watchers appear to be a danger signal.

 

To some critics, the fact that INEC can shift the goal post at the middle of the game tells that indeed the commission may be dancing a music being played by an anonymous being.

 

The suspicion of compromise was as a result of the fact that the ruling All Progressives Congress was yet to perfect its special convention to elect its presidential flagbearer and at a time when virtually all other parties have set the stage to meet up with the June 3rd deadline for completion of all party primaries.

 

PDP, the main opposition party has also concluded its presidential primaries which was due in less than 24 hours with virtually all delegates in the Abuja venue of the convention and stages set. Though as at Saturday morning, there was an emergency National Working Committee of the party, it was not known whether the convention will still hold. This confusion arising after the APC had swiftly shifted their convention to between 6th and 8th of June.

 

Recall that 24 hours to the earlier scheduled date, Nigerians were kept in the dark as to the plans of the APC leadership as the 25 presidential aspirants were and still have not been screened. Though, sources said the party was battling to endorse a consensus candidate but the absence of the leader, President Mohammadu Buhari who is currently on diplomatic duty outside the country appears to have elicited more confusion for the party members.

 

So when INEC buckled and reversed itself, it was not difficult to allude that the commission was merely taking orders from powers that be. So, the question being raised is how independent can this INEC be in the management and prosecution of the 2023 general elections.

 

INEC, in its statement late Friday, said: “The Commission has decided to allow the request of the political parties since the six-day period does not conflict with the next scheduled activity which is the submission of the list of nominated candidates or any of the subsequent timelines which remain sacrosanct … the request is granted in respect of outstanding primaries only without prejudice to those already concluded by political parties.”

 

Former INEC chairman Prof Atahiru Jega had earlier warned on the danger of tampering with the time table.  According to him, shifting the timetable was a recipe for electoral disaster, “because once you shift one timeframe, it affects virtually all the others. So, frankly, I think the political parties have had opportunity to work within the timelines provided by INEC.

“They had since February to do all that is required, leading to the primaries, but because of this mentality of impunity, they always assumed that even at the last minute, they can put pressure on INEC to yield and that was what they are doing. And frankly, INEC  should never yield to this kind of pressure.

“If you change the time for primaries, it will affect everything. You know, so you have to keep on adjusting, adjusting, and you lose trust, you lose confidence, and in fact, it may even affect the actual outcome of the election. So, that’s why I think is a disaster to change it.

“But, of course, we will also expect that if INEC refuses to change the timelines, because of pressure by political parties, we do not expect INEC to also change the timetable in its own favour.

“So, it means both the Electoral Commission and the politicians and all stakeholders must work together within this timeframe. And I believe this can lead for us having credible elections that we desire in this country.”

 

Though it may be argued that the parties requested for the extension but curiously and conspicuously absent at the Friday meeting where such decision was taken was the main opposition party and the main challenger, PDP. Both PDP and APC have been playing cat and mouse game with each not allowing the other milage on the choice of candidates and the zoning preferences. With the development, the APC may have won the game as they now have ample space to carefully make a pick of candidate.

 

One other challenge that may also smear the 2023 general elections is the monetisation or ‘dollarisation’ of the campaign as witnested by undoing political activities.

 

Investigation has showed that a lot of monies are being spent by aspirants while embarking on consultations with delegates and stakeholders. Most of the aspirants in the two major political parties APC and PDP are said to be spending millions of both naira dollars to buy the conscience of the delegates.

 

Former bank chief, and PDP Presidential forerunner Mohammed Hayatu-Deen early hours of Saturday  withdrew from the race citing the monitisation of the process. According to him, “It is therefore based on personal principles and with great humility that I have decided after wide consultations to withdraw from this contest which has been obscenely monetized.”

 

INEC Chairman,  Prof. Mahmood Yakubu only recently expressed concerns over how politicians have monetised the nation’s electoral process, noting that the nation might be inching towards plutocracy, a viewpoint a former chairman of the commission, Prof. Attahiru Jega, also shared.

 

Yakubu said the act by politicians using money to sway delegates to their sides during their primaries was a thing of concern to the commission. He, however, assured the people that INEC would work with anti-graft agencies to reverse the trend.

“But there are two dimensions to it, when you have willing collectors, it becomes much more difficult to control the situation. We have seen cases, where voters also rejected money and voted their choice like what happened in Anambra and also there are situations where on election day, voters go after the vote buyers.

“However, right now, it is now going beyond simply the question of buying votes at polling units. What political parties do is critical to what INEC does. INEC conducts secondary elections but it is candidates that participate in the secondary elections and the way money is exchanging hands is a source of concern.

“However, we have renewed our partnership with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) on this aspect”.

 

Prof. Jega who was also a former Vice-Chancellor of Bayero University, Kano, said that the use of money in Nigerian politics was a big issue of concern, and that, rather than having improvements in that regard, Nigeria seemed to be sliding back.

According to him, with the way money was being spent by politicians, the country was moving in the direction of becoming a plutocracy rather than a democracy. Plutocracy is basically government of the rich for the rich by the rich.

While berating the National Assembly for increasing the threshold of campaign finance by political parties, he said, “Imagine, the National Assembly altered the Electoral Act to increase the threshold of how much a candidate can spend for election finance. That is something that we should all have opposed. Regrettably, we were too busy opposing the issue of electronic transmission and so on, that we lost focus.”

 

Recall that one of the political parties, the APC charged as much as 100 million naira to sell its expression of interest and nomination forms for the presidential ticket and over 28 aspirants bought the form at a time when over 80 percent of Nigerians are grappling with acute and severe economic downturn.

 

Senior Fellow, CDD, Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim, also decried what he termed the “extensive growth of banditry within the political class” and said elections in the country would always become a complicated issue when a significant percentage of the political class were crooks and criminals.

“What we are confronted with, our elections is the extensive growth of banditry within the political class. We as citizens will continue to have crisis in our elections if we don’t get people of integrity into the political class. Elections is easy. It is a technical act. I have observed elections in many countries less developed in Nigeria but they don’t have issues like Nigeria.

“When delegates collect money, they are eating the integrity of that election. Primaries are so many and we are all watching the drama with shock and manipulation is the order of the day. And how those who are involved have had the opportunity to steal public funds. Therefore, that culture of banditry and criminality controls the electoral process.”

 

Director of programmes, YIAGA Africa, Cynthia Mbamalu, lamented that ‘political bandits’ had turned election to highest bidder, noting that, the high cost of nomination forms, especially, by the major political parties had kept bright minds away from the political process.

“The process is already being rigged during the primaries. Younger people want to see themselves part of the process and on the ballot. If we don’t see younger people and women participating, then, it is a challenge,” she said.

National Chairman, Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Yabagi Yusuf Sani, however, defended the cost of nomination fees collected by parties, adding that parties needed funds to print posters, pay staff and organise campaigns.

According to him, blaming politicians alone for the rot in the system was unfair.

 

Another major challenge that may signpost the 2023 general elections, may be the issue of insecurity. Prof. Yakubu recetly raised the concern about the increasing insecurity across the country.

CDD director, Idayat Hassan, said Nigeria was faced with harsh realities, where parts of the country were embroiled in different forms of conflict and violence.

Hassan said all the threats have implications for the conduct of elections – both in terms of safety of election materials, personnel and even voters, adding that they also have the potential to affect voter turnout and the legitimacy of the result.

 

A section of Nigeria, particularly in the South East and North East appear more vulnerable as the activities of the ‘unknown gunmen and other non state actors as well as terrorists are making the election a dangerous activity. A few days ago, in Niger state, some PDP delegates were gunned down, while reports had it that some primaries were also disrupted in several areas by hoodlums.

 

However,  INEC has vowed that the 2023 general election will be a reality but has however pleaded with all and sundry to play their parts in ensuring a successful outing.