NIGERIA: Will PDP ever bounce back to reckoning?

TONYE BARCANISTA

At the conclusion of the Presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections in 1998 and 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) triumphed over All Peoples Party (APP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD) to emerge as Nigeria’s most dominant political party at the beginning of the fourth republic, as the party won the Presidential election, 66 out of 109 seats in the Senate and about 200 out of 360 seats in the Federal House of Representatives. In addition to these, the Party had comfortable control in 21 out of 36 States across the Federation, leaving the APP and AD with 6 and 9 states respectively.

In 2003, the PDP performed, even more, better than it did in 1999. They retained the Presidency, increased their seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 76 and 223 seats respectively. In addition to that feat, PDP increased the number of states under control to 27 (initially 28 until Anambra was upturned in favor of APGA). The growth of stature of PDP simply meant shrinking of APP and AD control of States to 7 and 1 respectively – meaning both parties lost 2 and 5 states respectively.

At the 2007 elections, it was clear that AD has gone to extinction with the newly formed Action Congress (AC) that was led by a faction of AD taking its place as the main opposition in the Southwest. However, at the conclusion of the general election, the PDP further consolidated its dominance of Nigeria’s politics. The party retained the Presidency, increased its seats in the Senate to 86 (from 79) and 260 from 223 in the House of Representatives. The PDP also increased its control of States to 31. However, the number later reduced to 26 when Anambra was returned to APGA (2007), Ondo was upturned to LP (2009), and Edo (2010), Ekiti (2010) and Osun (2010) went in favor of opposition AC through judicial pronouncements.

After the 2007 election, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, the National Chairman of PDP in 2008, boasted that “The PDP is a party for all and it is set to rule Nigeria for the next 60 years. I don’t care if Nigeria becomes a one-party state. We can do it and the PDP can contain all”. That statement drew condemnation from the opposition but what could they have done?

Meanwhile, the ANPP (previously known as APP) only managed to retain 4 States, while the new block in town; Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and AC got 2 States and 1 state respectively. AD was completely annihilated, ANPP’s annihilation was but a matter of time.

At the 2011 general election, though reinforced its dominance by retaining the presidential seat and dominating the National Assembly, the party showed signs that it was not invisible. The PDP control in the Senate fell to 71, while its House membership was reduced to 202. The Party also saw a decline in the number of States under its control to 23. On the other hand, the AC and APGA increased their control of States to 8 and 2 respectively, ANPP further fell to 3, while an ambitious Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) got 1 State under its belt.

In 2015, the PDP was eventually demystified. The Party lost the Presidential election, and lost control in both Chambers of the National Assembly, winning 48 and 140 seats in the Senate and House of Representatives respectively. The States under the control of PDP were equally reduced to 11. This was further reduced to 9 following the Party loss of Ekiti and Ondo States in 2016. The PDP was demystified by the All Progressives Congress – a merger of ACN (formerly AC), ANPP, CPC, and a faction of APGA. The capacity of the APC was swelled with the entrance of a group of aggrieved senior PDP leaders known as the New PDP.

In 2019, despite the dwindling popularity of the APC, PDP could not defeat the Party in the Presidential election. The party also saw a further decline in its seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 45 and 128 respectively. The Party however got an increase in States to 14 (initially 15 until judicial pronouncement that returned Imo State to APC).

Penultimate to the 2023 election, PDP was bedeviled with an internal crisis similar to the crisis it experienced in 2015. The result of the election saw the Party losing the Presidential election to the APC. The PDP further saw a decline in Seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 36 and 107 respectively according to official results. The party further saw a decline in the number of states in its control to 12.

The interesting thing about the 2023 election is the loss of Southeast and Southsouth geopolitical zones to the Labour Party (led by breakaway PDP members). The two zones are historically a comfortable turf for the party in every presidential election since 1999. Furthermore, PDP could only manage to win in one (northeast) out of the six zones in the country – a sharp decline from its previous fortunes.

At present, the political war of attrition between a faction led by five influential governors (known as G5) and another group loyal to the Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar seems not to be over – both groups are employing all the political cards to outdo the other. Even an event organised by the Party’s Governors Forum for its outgoing governors and governors-elect was boycotted by the G5 Governors and their supporters. The crack in the Party is very visible, and will further sink the party if left unattended.

Conclusively, it remains to be seen whether or not the party, which once prided itself as the largest in Africa, will bounce back to reckoning. But the PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its myriads of internal issues, and make the party attractive to the GenZ and other young Nigerians through holistic reforms.

Tonye Barcanista writes from FCT, Abuja.

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