2023 presidential poll: Atiku, Obi, Tinubu, in three-horse race

 

 

THOMAS IMONIKHE

By polling 1,271 out of 2, 340 votes to clinch the presidential ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, Wednesday, former Lagos State Governor and national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, proved book makers right that he would set up a three-horse epic presidential contest next year with the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, standard flag bearer and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as well as the Labour Party presidential hopeful, Mr. Peter Obi.

This does not completely rule out the chances of New Nigeria People Party, NNPP, presidential aspirant and two-term governor of Kano State, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who has been tipped to give the other parties a tough challenge in the North West geo-political zone where he had already teamed up with another former governor of his home state, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau.

 

But unlike in 2015 and 2019 elections when APC dominated the zone due largely to the towering presence of outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, who hails from the region, the Saturday, February 25, 2023 presidential poll is expected to be keenly contested by the APC, PDP, NNPP and Labour Party since the incumbent cult following wouldn’t be a factor anymore and considering the hardship and insecurity in Nigeria.

 

To emerge victorious on Wednesday, Tinubu, a veteran of many political battles ranging from the politics of the aborted Third Republic where he was elected senator to represent the Lagos West senatorial district in 1993 and a dominant force in the current Fourth Republic, had floored several candidates including ex-Transportation Minister, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi,  Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Senate President Ahmad Lawan, who placed a distant second, third and fourth positions, respectively, at the keenly-contested primary witnessed by President Buhari, First Lady, Mrs. Aishat Buhari, members of the APC National Working Committee, NWC, led by the National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, and 2,340 accredited party delegates.

 

Adamu had stirred a major controversy barely 24 hours to the primary held at the Eagle Square Abuja when he unilaterally announced that Dr. Lawan had been adopted as the APC’s consensus candidate which turned out to be a ruse.

 

However, the dust raised by his unguarded utterance had not settled when presidential spokesman, Mallam Garba Shehu, disowned the former Nasarawa State  governor who stated emphatically that his principal had no preferred candidate, adding that Buhari stood for free, fair and credible primary and won’t be a party to any imposition.

 

This was further corroborated by governors elected on the platform of the APC from the North who immediately demanded that the next presidential candidate of the party must come from the South for the sake of peace, justice and harmony in the country. Determined to give effect to their clamour, the affected governors met behind closed -doors with Mr. President apparently to get his solid backing and support.

 

Jigawa State  Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and his Kogi State counterpart, Yahaya Bello , both  presidential aspirants, were reportedly the only dissenting voices from the governors’ camp who kicked against power shift following an allegation that the protagonists of Southern candidacy had struck a vital deal with Tinubu to nominate one of their own as vice presidential candidate of the party in the event of his clinching the presidential ticket on Wednesday.

 

Similarly, on the open disagreement between members of the party’s NWC and Senator Adamu over the veracity or otherwise of the claim of consensus arrangement ,according to political analysts , also worked strongly in Tinubu’s favour after the former publicly disowned the latter on the issue. At that juncture, it was quite obvious to all delegates and major stakeholders that the battle for the party’s presidential ticket would be decided through the ballot and not another imposition that initially threw up Adamu as National Chairman.

 

In other words, Tinubu’s imminent overwhelming victory at the primary

was a mission almost accomplished following the solid backing of the APC governors from the North coupled with his firm grip on the politics of the South western part of the country where he has been a king maker since 2003.

 

He had emerged candidate of the Alliance for Democracy, AD, in 1999 following his massive contributions to the activities of the National Democratic Coalition, NADECO , and strong backing of the chieftains of the apex Yoruba socio-cultural organization, Afenifere,  among them, late Chief Abraham Adesanya and the incumbent leader, Chief Ayo Adebanjo.

 

Subsequently, he was first elected Governor of Lagos State in 1999 on the platform of the AD, which metamorphosed into the Action Congress and later Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, one of the legacy parties that formed the All Progressives Congress, APC, on February 6, 2013 where he also emerged its national leader.

 

Tinubu, who holds the traditional title of Jagaban Borgu in Niger State which he cherishes highly, had scored a decisive political victory in 2003 when despite all odds from then ruling PDP, he won re-election  in fierce governorship contests dominated by the party in the South West geo-political zone. The PDP recorded a resounding success clinching the five governorship seats in Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo states while President Olusegun Obasanjo also retained his seat..

 

To clear the coast in the APC primary, however, nine aspirants had earlier withdrawn from the race for Tinubu Tuesday night including the only  female presidential aspirant, Mrs Uju Kennedy-Ohnenye; former Akwa-Ibom governor, Godswill Akpabio; former Ogun governor, Ibikunle Amosun; former Speaker House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole; Sen. Ajayi Boroffice of Ondo  State, Governor Muhammad Badaru of Jigawa State, and Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State.

 

Meanwhile, the APC flag bearer,  according to political analysts on Wednesday, is expected to emerge victorious in his South West base during next year’s presidential election, square up with the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar ,who hails from Adamawa  State in the North East where he may carry the day. Mr. Peter Obi, ex-governor of Anambra  State, had also been tipped to triumph in the South East region while Senator Kwankwaso is projected to make a strong showing in the North West.

 

The South South and the North Central zones have been aptly described as the battlegrounds regions for Tinubu, Atiku and Obi whose fates in the presidential election would be determined by their strong outing or otherwise there. Any of the trio, the analysts maintained, has the capacity and the greatest chances of winning the presidential contest next year irrespective of who is going to fly the flags of the remaining 15 political parties next year.