Kelvin Inobemhe, Blessing Egbunkonye, Adebowale Oke Roquebat, Kafilat Yusuf
Nigeria’s opposition party is again in a familiar and uncomfortable situation, all together, yet not all one.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) emerged as a likely platform that has brought together some of the most familiar political faces in the country, including the party national leaders like Senator David Mark, and former Osun Governor, Rauf Aregbesola.
Initially the party drew together strong politicians like ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Presidential flagbearer of Labour party in 2023 Peter Obi and Kano strongman politician Musa Kwankwaso, and former Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi.
It sounded like a dream team put together to bring an end to the All Progressive Congress’ hold on power.
It turned out more a coalition of convenience that was held together not by a common interest on how to govern Nigeria, but by their mutual dislike of President Bola Tinubu.
So the big question for political discourse in the corridors of Abuja, or Lagos talk shows, is not whether or not the opposition wants to come together, it is whether they can.
There is not much in history to offer solace. Nigeria’s opposition Party has tried grand coalitions in the past, most recently when they joined to form the APC and ousted Goodluck Jonathan from the public office in 2015.
That success was achieved on the basis of a single disciplined deal: a single dominant candidate, a clear zoning system, and leaders who were willing to sacrifice individual interest for a shared electoral agenda.
So far the 2027 coalition has failed to mirror any of those three conditions.
The dispute at the core of the ADC’s problems is between the two politicians with the largest individual bases within the coalition, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
Atiku, who has run for president six times, has said he is setting the example to the nation that he will challenge the party primary and will not back down from a contest for anyone.
Supported by the ‘Obidient’ movement that helped drive him to a strong performance in 2023, Obi has been clear that he does not plan on being anyone’s running mate.
Senator Mark has made it widely known that the ADC has no preference for who it chooses to go with, and that the ticket is open to all; his public stance is supposed to come across as fair, but it also reveals that so far the party has not been able to come up with a resolution.
More than just a personality clash, the impasse is wrapped up in the unwritten but powerful principle of zoning the Presidency between north and south in Nigeria.
El-Rufai and others have said that power must continue to stay in the South till 2031 in favour of Obi, an Igbo from the south east, instead of Atiku who is from the north.
Others in the coalition decry that electoral viability (not zoning arithmetic) should decide the flag bearer.
The party suffered from an internal leadership struggle which went on for months, until it was finally settled in court by the Supreme Court in favour of the leadership headed by Mark, and Aregbesola. This left it exposed as to how easily it could fall apart from within.
Meanwhile, some of the key players like Obi have since relocated to other platforms like the Nigerian Democratic Congress, NDC, which further widened the cracks within the coalition or even caused it to split.
Aware that the opposition’s prospects are threatened by this faction fighting amongst themselves a group of prominent people known as the G-100 entered the fray.
The group in an open letter dated 2 August 2026, said Nigeria could not be saved by opposition leaders who “are walking to the same doom, but in different directions”.
The summit in Abuja was intended to secure the leaders of opposition to a “solemn covenant” from the group.
It is too early to tell if such moral suasion can work where months of internal party negotiation have failed.
Nigerian politics has a long memory of empty promises which are broken before the primary elections and before the calculations take effect.
Movement at the edges adds to the picture. Smaller parties like Accord, the African Action Congress, and the Social Democratic Party have also declared their alliance talks, while some parties with national leadership has simultaneously endorsed Tinubu’s re-election, indicating how fluid and disorganised opposition is these days.
The chaos has not gone unnoticed by the pro-Tinubu groups, who have been quick to take advantage of the confusion, describing the ADC coalition as “a desperate coalition of displaced politicians seeking lost relevance” in one of the presidential support groups’ statements.
Despite all the doubts, it would be too early to rule out the coalition completely. As the nation’s political parties, the APC and PDP, have continued their two-party dominance, voters have developed a hunger for alternatives to them, especially since 2023, and the economic hardship that has continued to plague the nation, from inflation to fuel prices, to the naira that continues to push citizens to their limits.
It is indeed fertile ground for the opposition if they can present a credible and coherent alternative.
A clean and honest primary process, rather than consensus-building behind the scenes, could be the only way to produce a candidate who would both be accepted without disqualification by Atiku and Obi’s camps and yet be considered legitimate (if there would be a serious coalition and challenge to the current status quo in 2027).
Real unity would also mean that a possible coalition would have to go beyond negative mobilisation. But resistance to Tinubu is not a governing philosophy, nor is it a governing philosophy that will be enough to satisfy the Nigerian electorate, especially the younger ones who engage with the digital world and changed the dynamics of the 2023 election.
A convincing opposition would have to come up with definite stance on the aftermath of the fuel subsidy, stability of the Nigerian currency, insecurity in the North West and North East regions and the much-debated issue of restructuring of Nigeria which has been simmering under the Nigerian political pot for decades.
The Coalition’s public rhetoric has been so far a one-sided argument about power-sharing rather than about policy separation from the ruling party.
In the present circumstances, the opposition coalition of 2027 is more of an unfinished product, whose final form is truly unpredictable.
The raw political capital under the ADC and the NDC banner is real, and if it can be used to its full potential, it may prove to be the most serious threat to Tinubu’s re-election campaign to date, with Atiku’s organisational heft, Obi’s mobilisation drive, El-Rufai’ and Kwankwaso’s credentials from the north and Mark’s elder-statesman status.
However, raw capital is not the same as a functioning coalition; and the political history of Nigeria is strewn with alliances that came undone due to unfulfilled ambitions.
The coming months, and the final stages of the parties’ internal democratic process at all levels will be the true litmus tests.
For the coalition to have a chance to change the narrative in 2027, it must find a way to come up with a single candidate that all major camps can accept as a fair deal and be able to move from anti-Tinubu language to a policy platform.
If not, Nigerians could be rewarded with a second opportunity to see a potentially strong opposition movement break apart at its most critical stage, thereby enabling the ruling party to reap the rewards of a split-screen as it so often does.
But, for the time being, the coalition is more of an intention than a fact, and Nigerians would do well today to watch the primaries, and not the press conferences, for the real answer to whether it is possible for the country to be united.
Kelvin Inobemhe, Blessing Egbunkeonye, Adebowale Oke Roqeebat, and Kafilat Yusuf are of the Department of Mass Communication, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria.
