OPEC+ raises quotas again as Middle East calms

Seven OPEC+ members decided on Sunday to again raise oil production quotas as Gulf countries reel from the Middle East war.

Ministers from key OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on Sunday and “decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day,” a statement from the organisation said, adding that “this adjustment will be implemented in August 2026”.

Gulf countries had to cut output after the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz orchestrated by Iran during the war in the Middle East, which blocked their oil exports for several months.

Between the first quarter of 2026 and May, combined production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait — three of the seven countries raising their quotas — fell by some six million barrels per day, OPEC data have shown.

But on June 17, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding, committing themselves to removing obstacles to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of talks following the signature.

Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at the Swiss bank UBS, told AFP that “for now, production is probably still below” OPEC+’s targets.

Since the memorandum of understanding was signed, ship transport in the region has slowly recovered, with oil prices dropping sharply to levels comparable to those seen before the war in anticipation of a gradual return to normal.

Oil supplies through this shipping lane may already have exceeded ten million barrels a day, according to a US official quoted by the Bloomberg agency.

But the oil currently leaving the strait has up to now been sitting in tankers or storage facilities, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, adding that “shut-in production takes time to restart”.