Nigeria may miss 2027 growth target as economic recovery remains slow

. Mixed trends complicate economic indices in April as NBS says food prices lead inflation

There are growing indications that Nigeria may fall short of the federal government’s ambitious target of achieving a 7 per cent economic growth rate by 2027, as the pace of recovery remains modest and the gap between current performance and the stated objective continues to widen.

Official data show that the economy expanded by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, representing a slight slowdown from the 4.07 per cent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The latest figures suggest that while economic reforms have helped stabilize growth, the economy remains significantly below the level required to attain the government’s medium-term target.

According to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics, growth weakened in both the oil and non-oil sectors during the first quarter when compared with the preceding quarter, reflecting persistent structural challenges across key segments of the economy.

Since assuming office in 2023, Bola Tinubu has implemented far-reaching economic reforms, including the removal of fuel and electricity subsidies, exchange-rate liberalization and tax policy adjustments aimed at strengthening public finances, attracting investment and accelerating economic growth.

The reforms have contributed to a gradual improvement in economic performance. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to 3.87 per cent in 2025 from 3.38 per cent in 2024. However, the current growth trajectory remains well below the annual 7 per cent expansion rate targeted by the administration for 2027.

Economic analysts note that achieving the target would require a dramatic acceleration in growth over the next year, driven by stronger investment inflows, improved productivity, expanded industrial activity and significantly higher output from the oil sector.

Data from the statistics agency show that Nigeria’s average crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026, slightly lower than the 1.58 million barrels per day recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The decline underscores the challenges facing a sector that remains critical to government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and overall economic performance.

With less than two years remaining before the 2027 target date, economists argue that sustaining growth above current levels will require deeper reforms to address infrastructure deficits, improve the business environment, boost agricultural and manufacturing productivity, and strengthen investor confidence.

The latest growth figures, therefore, suggest that although Nigeria’s economy is recovering, the pace of expansion may not be sufficient to deliver the government’s 7 per cent growth ambition by 2027 unless there is a significant improvement in performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.

. Mixed trends complicate economic indices in April as NBS says food prices lead inflation

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS says prices of tomatoes, beans, garri, onions, ginger, and other food items recorded month-on-month increases in April 2026.

The NBS stated this in its Selected Food Prices Watch report for April 2026, released in Abuja on Tuesday.

The report showed that the average price of 1kg of tomatoes increased by 6.60 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N1,104.85 recorded in March 2026 to N1,177.92 in April 2026.

“However, on a year-on-year basis, the price of 1kg of tomatoes decreased by 8.23 per cent from N1,283.57 recorded in April 2025.”

Similarly, the report said the average price of 1kg of brown beans increased by 0.99 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N1,325.85 in March 2026 to N1,338.93 in April 2026.

“On a year-on-year basis, however, the price decreased significantly by 44.89 per cent from N2,429.39 recorded in April 2025 to N1,338.93 in April 2026.”

It also showed that the average price of 1kg of white garri increased by 0.93 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N801.54 in March 2026 to N808.96 in April 2026.

“However, on a year-on-year basis, the price dropped by 39.86 per cent from N1,345.10 recorded in April 2025.”

The report said the average price of 1kg of onion increased by 0.98 per cent from N1,153.14 recorded in March 2026 to N1,164.39 in April 2026.

“On a year-on-year basis, 1kg of onions decreased by 22.56 per cent from N1,503.56 recorded in April 2025.”

The report also said the average price of 1kg of fresh ginger increased by 0.73 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N5,541.25 recorded in March 2026 to N5,581.82 in April 2026.

“On a year-on-year basis, 1kg of ginger increased by 12.30 per cent from N4,970.66 recorded in April 2025.”

It said the average price of one litre of palm oil increased by 0.12 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N2,393.38 recorded in March 2026 to N2,396.32 in April 2026.

“On a year-on-year basis, it also increased by 4.77 per cent from N2,516.36 recorded in April 2025.”

On state profile analysis, the report showed that in April 2026, the highest average price of 1kg of tomatoes was recorded in Bayelsa at N1,600.73, while the lowest was recorded in Plateau at N730.48.

It said Oyo recorded the highest average price of 1kg of brown beans at N1,938.91, while the lowest was in Taraba at N750.

According to the report, Abia recorded the highest average price of 1kg of white garri at N1,075.47, while the lowest was reported in Plateau at N517.94.

The report said the highest price of 1kg of onion bulb was recorded in Abia at N2,115.67, while Kwara recorded the lowest price at N684.38.

The NBS also said that the highest average price of 1kg of onion bulb was recorded in Abia at N2,191.63, while the lowest price was recorded in Nasarawa at N832.16.

It said Ekiti recorded the highest average price of one bottle of palm oil at N2,819.09, while Abia recorded the lowest at N2,024.41.

Analysis by zone showed that the average price of 1kg of tomatoes was highest in the South-South at N1,561.10, followed by the South-East at N1,379.57.

“The lowest price was recorded in the North-West at N822.72.”

The South-West and South-South recorded the highest average price of 1kg of brown beans at N1,787.09 and N1,764.99, respectively, while the lowest price was in the North-East at N871.79.

It said the South-East recorded the highest average price of 1kg of white garri at N944.58, followed by the South-South at N944.01, while the North-Central recorded the lowest at N673.88.

The NBS also said the South-East and South-South recorded the highest average price of 1kg of onion bulb at N1,735.53 and N1,268.96, respectively.

“The North-Central recorded the lowest average price of 1kg of onion at N911.40.”

The report said the South-West recorded the highest average price of 1kg of fresh ginger at N6,812.92, followed by the South-East at N6,432.15.

“The North-East recorded the lowest average price of 1kg of fresh ginger at N881.12.”

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