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Nigeria’s Refineries starved: Only 4 in 10 promised crude barrels actually delivered in Q1 2026

 

FAVOUR ISHEMBER, Abuja

 

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has published fresh data detailing how the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) has been implemented, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act.

According to the report, a total of 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were earmarked for domestic refineries within the quarter. In response, oil producers collectively made available a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels.

Despite this, only 28.5 million barrels were actually delivered to local refineries, reflecting a conversion rate ranging between 36 and 46 percent by the close of the first quarter of 2026.

A closer look at monthly performance shows that in January, after engagements with key stakeholders including crude oil producers, the Commission directed that 22.6 million barrels be supplied to domestic refiners.

Producers went beyond this requirement, putting forward 25.3 million barrels; an increase of 11.9 percent, equivalent to an extra 2.7 million barrels. However, actual deliveries fell significantly short, with only 9.2 million barrels reaching local refineries.

In February, the Commission assigned 20.5 million barrels under the DCSO framework. Producers slightly underperformed, offering 19.8 million barrels, about 700,000 barrels below the target. Deliveries declined further, settling at 9.1 million barrels.

March recorded a slight rebound, with supply rising to 10.1 million barrels, compared to 9.2 million in January and 9.1 million in February. During the same month, allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered a notably higher 23.6 million barrels, an excess of 4.8 million barrels or 25.5 percent above the requirement.

The persistent gap between volumes offered and those actually delivered has largely been linked to disagreements over pricing between producers and domestic refiners. The Commission noted that transactions are guided by a “willing buyer, willing seller” model, which continues to influence outcomes.

Even with these challenges, the Commission reiterated its resolve to meet the government’s target of achieving energy self-sufficiency.

By leveraging the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, it plans to maintain recent improvements in crude production while refining the DCSO framework to boost transparency, improve efficiency, and ensure that domestic refineries receive the volumes committed to them.

 

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