.Middle East crisis unlikely to derail stock mkt performance — Uwaleke
Donald Trump has claimed that the US and Iran are launching a ‘joint venture’ in the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran prepares to rake in $1 million per vessel.
Trump announced last night that Iran has agreed to a two-week ceasefire and will reopen the oil artery while a 10-point peace plan is considered by both sides.
The exact terms have not been agreed but Iran wants to charge tolls of up to $1 million on ships that pass through the Strait during the two-week period, an unnamed Middle East official told the Associated Press.
Trump welcomed the idea on Wednesday, telling ABC: ‘We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people.
‘It’s a beautiful thing.’
The Strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, has now become known as the ‘Tehran Tollbooth’, according to Bloomberg.
Ship owners go through a complex and expensive process of negotiation which includes middlemen, foreign currency and crypto transactions.
The ships must inform intermediary companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of the ship’s cargo, destination, and ultimate owner.
Iran then charges a ‘toll’ of at least $1 per barrel – and this must be paid in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency.
The average rate for a single oil tanker is $2 million. If everything is approved, IRGC boats will finally provide an escort into and out of the ‘tollbooth’.
Some analysts believe it could make as much as $500 billion in five years.
The exact terms of the peace deal have not been revealed.
Trump said Wednesday: ‘They are very good points – and most of them have been fully negotiated. If it isn’t good, we’ll go right back to it very easily.’
The ten-point plan, reported by Iran’s Tasnim news agency, says that the US should accept Tehran’s continued control over the Strait, recognize its right to uranium enrichment, lift all sanctions, pay compensation, and withdraw all troops from the region.
Trump vowed that Iran will not be able to enrich uranium and that the US will coordinate with Tehran to extract ‘nuclear dust’ buried deep underground after airstrikes.
The President wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday: ‘There will be no enrichment of uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 bombers) nuclear “dust.”‘
According to the White House the safety of the uranium was confirmed before an eleventh hour deal was struck.
‘Nothing has been touched from the date of attack,’ Trump said, claiming that the nuclear site has been watched closely since it was bombed.
It is not clear whether Trump was referring to the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, or to more recent strikes during the current Iran war.
Trump said that tariff and sanctions relief were being discussed as part of a peace plan with ‘many’ points already agreed.
Trump described the deal as ‘total and complete victory’ on Tuesday night.
The US and Iran will now engage in negotiations over the next two weeks, buying some time to try to reach a permanent settlement.
It is unlikely to be smooth sailing, but in after-hours trading, the price of a barrel of oil dropped below the $100 mark for the first time in days, and US stock futures soared.
Following the confirmation of the deal, the US President hailed ‘a big day for world peace’ after agreeing to pause the attacks.
.Middle East crisis unlikely to derail stock mkt performance — Uwaleke
The United States-Israel-Iran tensions are unlikely to significantly derail the stock market from its performance in the second quarter (Q2), Prof. Uche Uwaleke says.
Uwaleke, the President of the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (CMAN), disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Wednesday in Abuja.
He said the resolution was due to the domestic orientation of the market.
Uwaleke said the dominance of domestic investors also insulated the market from global shocks, especially the current Middle East crisis in the first quarter (Q1).
He said with the successful completion of banking recapitalisation and the potential listing of the Dangote Refinery, the market outlook remained constructive for the rest of 2026.
Uwaleke said the banking sector was likely to remain a key driver of the market, particularly Tier-1 banks, due to post-recapitalisation expectations and strong earnings outlook.
He said consumer goods and industrial stocks, especially those benefiting from improved foreign exchange access and reduced input cost volatility would perform well.
Uwaleke added that energy-related players would attract attention, particularly with the anticipated listing of the Dangote Refinery before the end of third quarter, which could be a major catalyst for the market.
”Retail investors tend to gravitate towards fundamentally strong, well-known companies with consistent dividend histories and clear growth narratives.
”Banking stocks fit this profile, especially in the context of recapitalisation, which signals strength and expansion.
”Additionally, companies with strong earnings visibility, resilience to FX volatility, and potential for capital appreciation are likely to attract sustained retail interest.
”The accessibility of digital trading platforms has also amplified participation in these sectors,” he said.
Speaking on the indices that spurred Q1 market growth, Uwaleke said it was largely driven by a combination of improving macroeconomic fundamentals and renewed investor confidence.
He said key policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria, particularly around foreign exchange management had helped to stabilise the naira and moderate inflationary pressures.
Uwaleke said the steady accretion to gross external reserves, now about $50 billion, also strengthened confidence in the country’s ability to meet external obligations.
He said improved corporate earnings and attractive valuations at the start of the year, encouraged both institutional and retail participation.
”The outlook remains positive primarily because the drivers of Q1 performance are still intact.
”Inflation is gradually moderating, exchange rate stability is improving, and policy direction appears consistent.
”Furthermore, structural developments such as the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation and anticipated major listings are expected to deepen market liquidity and attract new capital.
”That said, potential risks include profit-taking by investors, monetary tightening if inflation surprises on the upside, and global uncertainties,” he said.
On the country’s T+1 settlement cycle transition by May 29, Uwaleke said the market was reasonably prepared for the move.
He said there had been significant investment in market infrastructure, including trading platforms, clearing systems, and risk management frameworks over the years.
Uwaleke said market operators, custodians, and regulators had also been engaging in capacity building and system upgrades to ensure a smooth transition.
”While there may be initial adjustment challenges, the ecosystem appears sufficiently robust to handle the change especially with the new recapitalisation requirements by the Securities and Exchange Commission for capital market regulated entities,” he said. (NAN)
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