… Nigeria risks increased smuggling activities amid US-Israel-Iran war — Analyst
The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a major reduction in the prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel. This strategic adjustment is aimed at easing the financial burden on consumers and supporting broader economic stability across Nigeria.
Under the new pricing framework, the gantry price of PMS has been lowered from ₦1,175 to ₦1,075 per litre—a reduction of ₦100. The coastal price has also been adjusted downward from ₦1,150 to ₦1,028 per litre, representing a ₦122 decrease. Diesel prices have similarly been reduced from ₦1,620 to ₦1,430 per litre, amounting to a ₦190 cut.
This decision underscores our commitment to maintaining a pricing structure that remains sensitive to global market trends and reflective of our principles of fairness and transparency.
The refinery noted that as a company operating under strict governance standards and strong ethical values, it is important for us to ensure our pricing aligns with the ongoing decline in global crude oil prices. All crude processed at the refinery is purchased at the global benchmark price, plus a premium of $3 to $6. Foreign exchange payments are made at the prevailing market rate, with no subsidies applied to either crude or forex. Additionally, crude supplied through the Naira‑for‑Crude arrangement is priced in line with the global benchmark plus premium and converted to naira using the current exchange rate.
In 2025 alone, we reduced our gantry prices on no fewer than eight occasions, increasing them only twice—an effort rooted in economic patriotism and our responsibility to the Nigerian people. We remain committed to ensuring that any cost advantages are passed on to consumers across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Recently, the Managing Director of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird, assured Nigerians that the refinery will continue to meet the nation’s fuel demand despite turbulence in the global oil and gas market. He noted that while fuel‑import‑dependent nations are experiencing panic buying and rationing, Nigeria will not face similar conditions because of the refinery’s unwavering commitment to ensuring nationwide fuel availability.
Bird highlighted that the refinery continues to supply uninterrupted fuel to the domestic market even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp increases in crude prices, freight charges, and insurance costs. He described the recent spike in crude markets as unprecedented, pointing out that oil surged from the mid‑$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel in just one week—disrupting every segment of the global energy supply chain.
While acknowledging that the refinery is not insulated from global price fluctuations, freight volatility, or rising insurance premiums, Bird emphasized that Nigeria now enjoys a significant advantage: a secure fuel supply driven by domestic refining capacity.
“What would be worse than $120 oil is no oil,” he noted, stressing that several countries are now rationing fuel due to total dependence on imports. He added that even nations with strong refining sectors have begun restricting fuel exports to protect their domestic markets amid the ongoing global supply shock.
Bird reaffirmed that as long as the refinery continues to receive crude from the Federal Government and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), it will remain fully committed to supplying the domestic market.
“With the continued support of the government and uninterrupted access to local crude supply, Dangote Refinery will consistently meet all of Nigeria’s refined fuel requirements,” he assured.
However, Global crude prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As of today, March 10, 2026, Brent crude is around $88.90 per barrel, while WTI crude is approximately $85.94 per barrel. These prices reflect a sharp decline from recent highs above $100 per barrel, driven by US President Donald Trump’s statement that the war in the Middle East could end soon.
The situation remains volatile, with factors like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potential supply disruptions influencing market trends. Analysts predict prices will remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months due to the conflict.
… Nigeria risks increased smuggling activities amidst US-Israel-Iran war — Analyst
In another development, a customs and maritime expert, Eugene Nweke has said that Nigeria might face rising smuggling activities amid Iran tensions following potential disruptions that could significantly affect global shipping.
Nweke stated this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Tuesday in Abuja.
He added that energy markets and trade flows could be affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway between Iran and Oman through which some of the world’s oil passes.
NAN reports that the International Maritime Organisation recently said that no fewer than 3,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers were stranded in the Middle East over the ongoing war by the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
It said that the crucial Strait of Hormuz global shipping corridor marking the entrance to the Persian Gulf was closed due to the threat of strikes from Iran and elsewhere.
“Customs and security agencies must deploy advanced technology, intelligence-led operations, and regional cooperation mechanisms to counter rising smuggling risks and maintain border integrity,” he said.
The expert said that Nigeria, which relied heavily on imports for refined petroleum products, machinery and consumer goods, could face elevated landing costs and supply volatility.
He said beyond global disruptions, Nigeria’s maritime sector was also confronting intensifying regional port competition, particularly in West Africa with the Port of Lomé in Togo.
“At the same time, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has set an ambitious revenue target of N9 trillion, reflecting the government’s broader fiscal consolidation agenda.
“While achievable under improved trade facilitation and enforcement mechanisms, a shifting maritime landscape may introduce operational pressures.
“Reduced port traffic due to regional port competition may inadvertently shift trade flows toward land borders and informal corridors.
“This could result in increased border activities, greater pressure on customs enforcement systems and a potential rise in smuggling and illicit trade across Nigeria’s extensive land borders.
“Furthermore, intensified trade diversion could expose border corridors to heightened security threats, including organised smuggling networks and cross-border criminal activities,” he said.
According to Nweke, these risks underscore the need for stronger surveillance systems, coordinated security operations and improved border management strategies.
He said prolonged disruption or closure of the Strait could trigger global supply shocks, increase freight costs and drive inflationary pressures across import-dependent economies.
He added that in spite of these challenges, significant opportunities remained through the expansion of intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework.
Nigeria, he said, could position itself as a major supplier of refined petroleum products and manufactured goods across the continent.
This, he said, was by strengthening trade logistics, improving port efficiency and leveraging domestic industrial capacity such as the Dangote Refinery.
Nweke said to navigate this evolving landscape, strategic measures were essential to take such as strengthening port competitiveness and enhancing border, surveillance and security.(
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