By Pascal Chimezie
Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party in 2023 general election, faces a dilemma ahead of 2027 election. The earlier he starts working to extricate himself from the labyrinths the better for him. Time is too short. Since it is his wisdom and courage to plunge himself into the spiteful and murky waters of Nigerian politics, even when those who ought to have been solidly behind him and support his good cause from among his own people are distancing him, he must now apply the metaphoric wisdom Jesus Christ spoke about in the Holy Book. “For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not first sit down and estimate the cost to see if he has enough money to complete it?” (Luke 14:28).
Will Peter Obi, for any reason, accept the vice president position to anybody in the new coalition for 2027 presidential election? Repeatedly he has said he is running only for the President. But will he later change his mind? Assuming he stands his ground, how is he going to reconcile his ambition with that of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who appears to be desperate to contest again? Will the coalition party be able to accommodate these two conflicting ambitions? The overwhelming Atiku factor is such that even if the coalition conducts ‘free and fair’ primaries, Peter Obi will stand no chance to emerge the flagbearer. The former vice president is a man of considerable influence and wealth, backed also by a section of the country that sees power as birthright. Running as vice to Atiku Abubakar may not be a sure guarantee to defeat Tinubu, because it is not the turn of the North. In fact, it is likely to be a costly miscalculation that will adversely impact your goodwill, character and integrity.
Again, in the event that Atiku obstinately refused to back down, will Peter Obi still go along with the coalition? As what? And does he think he can go it all alone on a different political platform to run and win the 2027 presidential election? Will he command enough votes across North and South divide to defeat the incumbent president Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even as Atiku runs also under the ADC? The picture looks déjà vu, a deliberate replay of 2023 regrettable episode that gifted Tinubu cheap victory. In fact, to garner huge votes from Nigerians is not the problem. Does Peter Obi, who goes solo, have all it takes to secure his votes from predators whose political philosophy is ‘grab it, snatch it, and run with it’? How about systemic and institutional challenges? So, what does the future hold? “Which of you, intending to build a tower, does not first sit down and estimate the cost to see if he has enough money to complete it?”
Nigerians were excited about the news of opposition figures putting aside their differences, coming together to form alliance under the Action Democratic Congress, ADC, as a platform to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 general election. But at the same time there were some reservations not only about some characters in the coalition, but also regarding who the coalition will choose to be the presidential candidate. No sooner the coalition party was unveiled than Peter Obi declared publicly his presidential ambition. Former governor of Rivers state, Rotimi Amechi, followed suit. And former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, also insisted he must contest. The ruling party sensing these vaulting personal ambitions will be irreconcilable predicted a life expectancy of six months for the coalition to collapse. If that prediction will ever come to pass, Atiku’s vaulting ambition may be the catalyst. Why should Atiku find it difficult to support Peter Obi in 2027 for presidency, just in the interest of justice, equity and fairness? The same Peter Obi that contested with him as vice in 2019? Obi has pledged to go for one-term only. So, what is the issue again?
If Atiku truly stands for justice, he should be the one championing justice for the Southeast, because the region has never disappointed him. In all his years in PDP contesting elections, Ndigbo had solidly supported him. One good turn, they say, deserves another. Isn’t time he reciprocated in good measure? Peter Obi is very popular among many Nigerians, across all divide. Yet, Peter Obi needs the backing and strong support of Atiku Abubakar to succeed. With Atiku’s towering figure and wide exposure, it is time to be true statesman by supporting inclusiveness, national integration, growth and development. Atiku should not be much concerned about his age. It is a thing of the mind. After all Paul Biya at 82 is about doing eighth time in office in Cameroon. Atiku may justifiably feel betrayed given series of disappointments and demonization by his political associates and those he had trusted. But that should not be enough reason to throw Peter Obi who had shown him loyalty and humility under the bus, or make him political orphan.
We know it that some ultra-conservative elements in the North still believe they have some years of arrears in power, shortchanged them by the South, through President Goodluck Jonathan, during the ill-fated Umaru Musa YarAdua’s presidency. Is that what they want to take back now surreptitiously through Alhaji Atiku Abubakar? It seems one common thread running through the thinking of those up North is the wrong calculation that out of 28 years of current 4th Republic, the North has had only 10 years stint at presidency (Yar’Adua 2 years, Buhari 8 years), whilst the South has had it for 18 years (Obasanjo 8 years, Jonathan 6 years, Tinubu 4 years). Therefore Tinubu or South should not be allowed another 4 years to end in 2031, which will make it 21 years for the South. But this argument flies in the face of the fact that out of Nigeria’s 65 years political independence existence, the North has cumulatively ruled the country for approximately 45 years, and the South for 20 years!
Atiku’s insistence to contest the 2027, when it is still the turn of the South is grossly insensitive and utter disdain for other sections of the country, particularly the Southeast. Why will the North find it difficult to pull its weight behind Peter Obi, from Southeast, for a one-term against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027? The North’s seeming reluctance to support Peter Obi, and it’s insistence to return power back so soon to the North from Tinubu portends danger to the 2-term of 8-years gentlemanly power arrangement between North and South. It smacks of a hidden agenda. And it runs the risk of being misconstrued that the North does not want a Southeaster to be president. This perception is dangerous. And giving it validation nilly willy will be tragic. The Atiku factor is greatest danger facing the cohesion and unity of the new opposition coalition party. Somehow the North has managed to convince itself that it “has the numbers” to win election in Nigeria. And so possess the might and capacity to take back power anytime they so wish. Nothing can be farther from the truth, because every section of the country needs others. This entitlement mindset must stop, because that is what has landed us where we are today.
In 2007, it was turn of the North. Atiku Abubakar contested against Musa Yar’Adua and lost. He contested the presidential primaries of the People’s Democratic Party in 2011 against incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, and lost. In 2014, he joined the All Progressives Congress of the and contested the 2015 presidential primaries, and lost to Muhammadu Buhari. In 2017, he returned to the Peoples Democratic Party and was the party’s presidential candidate for the 2019 presidential election against the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. Again, Atiku Abubakar lost, despite the fact that he had Peter Obi as his vice, with massive votes support from the Southeast. In 2023, Peter Obi was frustrated and schemed out of the PDP to shop for new party at the eleventh hour. He was forced to join the Labour Party to contest, while Atiku Abubakar ran under the PDP with former governor of Delta state, Ifeanyi Okowa as vice. Both Obi and Atiku lost to now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, through votes allocation of the Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu’s INEC. Question now is what winning formula again does Atiku Abubakar wants to become president? If he thinks he can ride on the crest of the current anti-Tinubu sentiments to win the 2027 presidential election, he will be sorely disappointed. He is most likely to lose large chunk of Southern votes. And Tinubu unfortunately will get the second term.
Pascal Chimezie writes in from Lagos and can be reached through chimeziepascal@gmail.com
