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 20 Factors and Forces that Determine Nigeria’s Presidency

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 Pastor Dele Ikeorha


Nigeria is a beautiful as well as a very ugly country. Nigeria is a rich but also, one if the poorest countries in the world in reality. These paradoxes makes its leadership selection and evolution process interesting and frustrating.


The current political situation makes is becoming more clear and all forces are pointing towards a South East Presidency of Nigeria in 2023. What is of more concern is actually, who will it be or become. Who would the 20 factors that determine Nigeria’s Presidency resolve to.


Many are bickering over Atiku and Bola Tinubu, but these two are unlikely to become Nigeria’s President in 2023 and even if they try to rig the political process to result in their candidacy in APC and PDP to increase the probability of one of them becoming Nigeria’s President, the other forces would conspire and elevate a third fire to the rostrum.

 I have mentioned but not stated the 20 factors or fires that determines the Presidency of Nigeria, and would unmistakably do so in 2023. It is a literary technique I chose to adopt fire this writeup to maintain your full attention. My apologies.

Since the emergence of Nigeria’s democratic presidency, 20 factors had incrementally and progressively determined Nigeria’s Presidency as listed below. It must be understood that the level of importance and the weight of each factor is determined by the political exigencies and realities of the relevant times.


  1. The Consensus of the old Generals
  2. The Consensus of the old politicians
  3. The Consensus of majority of the elite
  4. The disposition of the incumbent President
  5. The financial power of the candidates
  6. The political structure of the potential candidates
  7. The poverty of the potential candidate
  8. The track record and pedigree of the potential candidates
  9. The social,, political and economic condition of the nation.
  10. The vortex of the interaction all the determining factors
  11. Rotational principle, Zoning and regional justice
  12. Religious and ethnic forces considerations
  13. Labour and civil society disposition
  14. Acceptability profile of potential candidates
  15. Public perception
  16. The disposition of the international community, especially of US, UK and now of China
  17. The Destiny of the potential candidates
  18. The disposition of the new Generals
  19. The disposition of the emerging politicians
  20. The God factor


Having analyzed these forces, I have long concluded that despite their political infrastructure, power and wealth, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are unlikely to become the President of Nigeria in 2023.

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